Issue 61 | Two Sessions Proposal: Accelerating the Inclusion of the HPV Vaccine in the National Immunization Program; Mayo Clinic Optimizes Influenza Vaccine Demand Forecasting Methods

Two Sessions Proposal

01

National People’s Congress (NPC) Representative Li Xia: Accelerating the Inclusion of the HPV Vaccine in the National Immunization Program

Representative Li Xia proposed actively promoting the dynamic expansion of vaccines included in the National Immunization Program (NIP). Within the next one to two years, priority should be given to incorporating HPV and Hib vaccines into the NIP to ensure broader accessibility for women and children, particularly those in remote and economically disadvantaged areas. (Source: The Paper)

02

NPC Representative Jiang Lingfeng: Enhance the Timely Payment Collection of  Non-NIP Vaccines

Jiang Lingfeng, NPC representative and Vice Chairman and President of Zhifei Biological, submitted several proposals at this year’s NPC session, focusing on the biopharmaceutical industry. Regarding the initiative to “enhance the timely payment collection of non-NIP vaccines and facilitate the sustainable development of the vaccine industry,” Jiang suggested resolving historical arrears through specialized debt financing and optimizing the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) payment system. He also recommended establishing a “direct fund transfer” mechanism to effectively alleviate financial pressures of vaccine manufacturers . (Source: Jiemian News)

Journal Article Recommandation

01

Optimizing influenza vaccine allocation: A predictive analytics approach for informed public health planning

This article was published in American Journal of Health-System Pharmacy, aimed to use predictive analytics to determine the influenza vaccine quantities that would be needed for the next influenza season while minimizing vaccine waste and meeting patient care demands. In the U.S., the traditional way of ordering influenza vaccines relies on historical ordering data, making it difficult to accurately predict demand, a challenge further exacerbated by fluctuating public acceptance of the vaccine, especially in the  post–coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) era. The process to produce influenza vaccine takes 6 to 8 months and needs to be booked six months in advance, placing additional pressure on healthcare providers in terms of logistical management and resource allocation. In this study, predictive modeling is used to improve ordering accuracy and ensure that vaccine supply matches actual demand, which reduces both cost and waste and the public health risks associated with supply shortages. 

The study retrospectively analyzed vaccination data from the past 4 influenza seasons from multiple regions of Mayo Clinic, including electronic health (EHR) documentation, nursing records, and inventory information. The analysis revealed that approximately 68% of quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIV) and 85% of high-dose vaccines (HD) were completed between August and November each year. Based on this timing pattern, the team developed a prediction algorithm that focused on two key parameters: the proportion of early vaccinations (August-November) and the demand adjustment factor for the remaining quarter. The model also considered vaccine package sizes and refrigerator space  constraints to optimize logistics management. To validate the model’s effectiveness, the study selected two regions of the Mayo Clinic (regions 3 and 5) as the experimental group to order vaccines using the new algorithm; the other three regions followed the traditional model as the control group. The experimental group voluntarily adjusted the predicted value downward by 10% at the time of ordering to comply with the supplier’s return policy while retaining room for contingency adjustments.

The results showed that the prediction model demonstrated significant advantages by comparing the actual data with the measured results for the 2023-2024 influenza season. The number of doses of QIV ordered for Regions 3 and 5 were 17,574 and 9,164, respectively, and the final actual number of doses administered were 15,902 and 9,016, respectively, with an error rate of less than 10%. The new strategy resulted in more than $1 million in cost savings compared to the traditional approach, while avoiding the risk of vaccine shortages. The study also found that higher doses of vaccine were more accurately predicted for demand, possibly related to greater vaccination stability in the elderly population.

The study suggests that compared to the traditional ordering method, ordering using predictive analytics allowed the team to more accurately determine future order volumes and spend, yielding significant cost savings.

https://doi.org/10.1093/ajhp/zxae336

02

Ten proposed measures to improve vaccination: Health care providers’ perspectives on promoting the vaccination intake of children with special healthcare needs in China

This study, authored by Zeng Mei, Huang Zhuoying, et al., was published in BMJ Paediatrics Open and aims to address the common issues of delayed or missed vaccinations among Children with Special Healthcare Needs (CSHCN) in China. The study proposes ten recommendations to optimize vaccination services, improve immunization coverage for CSHCN, and lay the groundwork for advancing immunization policies for this population. Using a cross-sectional qualitative research approach, the study interviewed 21 healthcare professionals from Shanghai, China, including vaccination clinic physicians from community health service centers, pediatric specialists from children’s hospitals, vaccine evaluation clinic physicians, and immunization program managers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The research team explored participants’ practical experiences regarding the challenges and barriers to immunizing CSHCN, assessed the gaps between the current vaccination services and patient demand, and gathered suggestions on improving immunization implementation for CSHCN.

10 measures were proposed to promote routine immunisation for children with special needs: (1) using immunisation advisory clinics to provide vaccination services for CSHCN; (2) establishing a referral network and specifying which cases necessitate referral to advisory clinics; (3) using an interconnected information system to identify, document and follow-up the CSHCN; (4) supporting high-quality clinical research to update immunisation protocols; (5) providing clear and definite immunisation recommendations to parents of eligible CSHCN; (6) seeking immunisation advice from specialised professionals to enhance primary care capability; (7) creating quality improvement programmes; (8) considering immunisation status a mandatory assessment during specialist visits; (9) supporting off-label use of vaccines legally and (10) encouraging pharmaceutical companies to update vaccine package inserts.

The study highlights the urgent need to increase vaccination coverage among CSHCN in China by establishing standardized vaccine evaluation clinics, a structured referral network, and tailored immunization protocols. The National Immunization Program (NIP) should refine its implementation guidelines and leverage regional CDCs to enhance the training of primary healthcare workers. Additionally, quality control and continuous improvement mechanisms should be developed and implemented to ensure standardized and accessible vaccination services. Furthermore, the study emphasizes that through systematic reforms and multi-stakeholder collaboration, efforts should be made to optimize communication between healthcare providers and families, streamline referral processes, and strengthen quality oversight. These strategies aim to create a more inclusive immunization system, ensuring that CSHCN receive the same level of immunization protection as healthy children, ultimately reducing their risk of infectious diseases and severe complications.

Children with Special Healthcare Needs (CSHCN) typically refer to children requiring long-term medical care or related services due to chronic illnesses, developmental disorders, congenital abnormalities, or other health conditions. Due to their unique physiological and pathological conditions, CSHCN often face delays or omissions in vaccine administration, leading to significantly lower NIP vaccine coverage rates compared to their healthy peers.

https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjpo-2024-002797

03

Increasing child vaccination coverage can reduce influenza cases across age groups: An agent-based modeling study

This article was published in The Journal of infection. In September 2024, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)  approved caregiver administration of Live Attenuated Influenza Vaccine (LAIV), which setting offers an opportunity to increase influenza  vaccine coverage (VC) of children. The study aims to explore whether the availability of the LAIV can facilitate expanding influenza vaccination coverage and improving convenience beyond traditional healthcare settings. The study utilized an agent-based model—the Framework for Reproducing Epidemiological Dynamics (FRED)—to simulate the impact of increasing vaccination rates among school-aged children aged 5–17 in the U.S. by 5% to 15% on influenza cases and hospitalization rates across different age groups. 

Results showed that for every 5% increase in vaccination rates among school-aged children, influenza cases decreased by 3.2% among children and by 3.3% in the overall population. If vaccination rates increased by 15%, the reduction in influenza cases could reach 10.9% among children and 11.6% in the overall population. Extrapolated to the total U.S. population, this corresponds to a reduction of 1.9 million to 5.9 million influenza cases annually, with the greatest benefits observed among adults aged 65 and older. Despite the relatively high vaccination rates in this age group, herd immunity established through increased vaccination among children could reduce annual hospitalizations by up to 23,258 cases. The study further revealed two key mechanisms driving this outcome: first, children act as primary vectors for influenza transmission, and enhancing their immunity effectively disrupts transmission chains; second, the trivalent LAIV (LAIV3) formulation may provide higher protection compared to the quadrivalent LAIV (LAIV4) formulation. Simulation data indicated that even without increasing vaccination rates, optimizing vaccine formulations alone could reduce influenza cases among school-aged children by 7.5% and lower overall influenza cases by 7.3%.

The study highlights that increasing influenza vaccination coverage among school-aged children, particularly through the use of LAIV, which can be administered by caregivers, significantly reduces the risk of influenza infection and hospitalization across the entire population. These findings underscore the amplification effect of technological innovations—such as more convenient vaccination methods and optimized vaccine formulations—in disease prevention, providing valuable scientific evid ence to inform public health policy decisions.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinf.2025.106443

04

Navigating the ‘sea of Cs’ in vaccine hesitancy: Where does collaboration fit?

This commentary article, published in Vaccine, systematically discussed the causes of vaccine hesitancy and strategies to address it, emphasizing the critical role of healthcare providers, interdisciplinary teams, and community collaboration in promoting vaccination uptake.

Vaccine hesitancy, defined as the “delay in acceptance or refusal of vaccines despite availability of vaccination services”  was recognized by the World Health Organization (WHO) as one of the leading threats to global health in January 2019. The spread of misinformation and disinformation during the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated a crisis of public trust in science and the healthcare system. What has stayed unchanged, however, is that healthcare providers remain the most trusted source of vaccine information and are therefore, through their interactions with their patients, at the forefront of addressing vaccine hesitancy. Studies have shown that for many initially hesitant parents who ultimately chose to vaccinate their children, the decisive factor was the information and professional advice provided by healthcare providers. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic increased public awareness about risks associated with vaccine preventable diseases, making patients more attentive to the ingredients, safety, and effectiveness of vaccines prior to immunisation, further underscoring the communication responsibilities of healthcare providers in the informed consent process. 

In the past decade, numerous models have been developed to describe influences on vaccine hesitancy and attempt to simplify a complex problem , beginning with the WHO’s Complacency, Convenience and Confidence (“3Cs”) Model of Vaccine Hesitancy in 2014. Betsch and colleagues further developed the model and added Calculation and Collective Responsibility in 2018 to create the 5C Psychological Antecedents of Vaccination. Recognizing the unique context of the COVID-19 pandemic on willingness to be vaccinated, Conspiracy and Compliance were added by Geiger and colleagues in 2021, resulting in the 7Cs of Vaccination Readiness. While these models effectively reveal the individual, systemic, and societal factors contributing to vaccine hesitancy, they remain insufficient in guiding healthcare providers in implementing specific intervention strategies, such as optimizing provider-patient communication and enhancing patient confidence. 

Studies suggest that among all factors influencing vaccine hesitancy, “collaboration” is likely the most influential core element, as it simultaneously fosters trust, reduces complacency, and optimizes individual decision-making. Collaboration between healthcare providers and patients is essential, and the Shared Decision-Making (SDM) model allows healthcare professionals to provide scientific evidence while respecting patients’ values, enabling them to make vaccine decisions that they perceive as acceptable. This approach not only improves vaccination rates but also enhances trust. Compared to generalized health education, personalized vaccine counseling has been shown to be more effective.

Moreover, interdisciplinary collaboration is a critical strategy for supporting vaccination uptake. Coordinated efforts among healthcare professionals (physicians, nurses, pharmacists, etc.) in providing vaccination services can optimize vaccine management, integrate immunization records, and ensure consistent communication of safety and efficacy information, thereby reducing misinformation and increasing public confidence. At the community level, collaboration is equally important, as it enhances collective responsibility to mitigate vaccine hesitancy while improving accessibility. For example, empowering community leaders to disseminate vaccine knowledge and implementing school-based immunization programs or mobile vaccination clinics can effectively reduce vaccination barriers and expand coverage. 

Addressing vaccine hesitancy requires an “all-hands-on-deck” approach, where healthcare institutions, interdisciplinary teams, and communities work collaboratively to optimize vaccine communication and service delivery. This integrated approach will help build a more resilient immunisation system, ultimately increasing vaccination uptake and advancing global public health goals.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2025.126876

Content Editor: Ziqi Liu

Page Editor: Ziqi Liu

Others

代表性地区的基本情况、接种政策及效果、宣传推动情况

(1) 成都市

 

基本情况

成都市2022年度GDP为20817.5亿元,排名全国城市第七。成都市出台了《健康城市建设推动健康中国行动创新模式成都市宫颈癌综合防控试点工作方案》等一系列相关政策推动适龄女孩HPV疫苗接种工作。

接种政策及效果

目标人群为13-14岁在校且无HPV疫苗接种史女生。免疫程序为国产二价0-6二剂次、进口二价0-1-6三剂次、进口四价0-2-6三剂次。资助政策为国产二价疫苗(沃泽惠)免费,其它疫苗补贴600元/人,并自付20元/剂接种费。疫苗接种按照属地化管理原则,由学校所在地预防接种单位负责。截至2022年1月,目标人群首针接种率达90.04%[14]。

宣传推动

成都市开展多形式、多载体的健康教育宣传。形式包括讲座、知晓日、义诊咨询、专题课程、专题活动等,载体包括宣传册、宣传栏、展板、电视、微信、视频号、抖音平台等,覆盖相关医疗机构300余、社区300余个、和公众场所90余个。面向适龄女孩及监护人、适龄女性及全体市民开展广泛宣教,宣传材料发放至近9万名群众,讲座活动覆盖近2万名群众。宣教内容包括HPV疫苗接种、两癌防控、其它女性常见疾病防控等。

(2) 济南市

 

基本情况

济南市2022年度GDP为12027.5亿元,位列全国城市排名20。2021年,济南市出台《健康城市建设推动健康中国行动创新模式试点一济南市宫颈癌综合防治工作方案(2021—2025年)》等一系列相关政策推动适龄女孩HPV疫苗接种工作。

接种政策及效果

目标人群为≤14周岁且无HPV疫苗接种史的在校七年级女生。免疫程序为国产二价0-6二剂次。资助政策免费接种。疫苗接种按照属地化管理原则,安排分班级分时段前往学校所在地的预防接种单位进行接种。截至2022年11月,目标人群首针接种率达
94.4%[15].

宣传推动

济南市开展多形式、多载体的健康教育宣传。形式包括采访、线上线下专题活动,载体包括网络媒体、纸媒、科普展板、宣传手册、子宫颈癌与HPV疫苗知识读本、济南HPV疫苗接种手册,宣教人群广泛涵盖全体市民,宣教内容包括HPV疫苗接种、两癌防控等知识。

(3) 鄂尔多斯市

 

基本情况

鄂尔多斯市2022年度GDP为5613.44亿元,全国地级市第45位。2021年,鄂尔多斯市出台了《健康城市建设推动健康鄂尔多斯行动创新模式工作方案》等一系列相关政策推动适龄女孩HPV疫苗接种工作。

接种政策及效果

2020年8月,鄂尔多斯市在准格尔旗率先开展HPV疫苗免费接种项目。目标人群为全市当年13-18岁在校且无HPV疫苗接种史女生。免疫程序为进口二价0-1-6三剂次,

2023年起调整为13-14岁女孩0-6二剂次。资助政策为疫苗免费,自付20元/剂接种费。组织方式为疫苗接种服务中心根据任务安排联系学校,有规划的通知适龄女孩前来完成HPV疫苗接种。截至2022年11月,目标人群首针接种率接近70%[16]。

2022年8月,启动准格尔旗和达拉特旗高三女生接种四价和九价HPV疫苗的试点工作,利用暑假时间展开接种,力争在2023年年底达成90%的接种目标[17]。自鄂尔多斯之后,由政府主导的HPV疫苗惠民行动在多地等涌现。值得注意的是,近年来多主体参与到HPV疫苗支持项目,如慈善总会、医院、妇联等为主体单位牵头组织开展了一些公益活动。

宣传推动

鄂尔多斯市开展多形式、多载体的健康教育宣传。形式包括讲座、知晓日、义诊咨询、专题课程、专题活动等,载体包括宣传册、宣传栏、展板、电视、微信、视频号、抖音平台等,宣教人群广泛涵盖在校女孩及监护人,适龄女性及全体市民。宣教内容包括HPV疫苗接种、两癌防控、其它女性常见疾病防控等。

(4) 西安市

 

基本情况

西安市2022年度GDP为11486.51亿元,排名全国第22位。2021年,西安市出台了《西安市健康城市建设推动健康中国行动创新模式试点宫颈癌综合防治工作方案》等一系列相关政策推动适龄女孩HPV疫苗接种工作。

接种政策及效果

目标人群为全市年龄满13周岁(初中)在校女生。免疫程序为国产二价0-6二剂次,进口二价0-1-6三剂次,进口四价和进口九价0-2-6三剂次。接种政策为自愿自费。各区(县)合理设立HPV疫苗专项疫苗接种门诊承担接种任务,并及时将接种信息统一录入儿童免疫规划信息平台。

宣传推动

西安市出台了《西安市宫颈癌综合防治宣传方案》(市健办发〔2022〕12号)。通过媒体宣传、社区活动、义诊等形式,宣传册、宣传栏、展板、电视、微信公众号、报纸等载体普及宫颈癌防治相关知识。

(5) 西藏自治区

 

基本情况

西藏自治区2022年度GDP为2132.64亿元,经济总量整体规模相对其他省份较小,人均GDP处于全国中等偏下水平。2022年出台《西藏自治区妇女“两癌”综合防治工作实施方案》等系列政策推动适龄女孩HPV疫苗接种。

接种政策及效果

目标人群为13-14岁在校女生。免疫程序为国产二价0-6二剂次。资助政策为免费。由学校组织,接种者在商定接种时间携带个人身份证明材料与法定监护人一同前往定点接种单位接种。

宣传推动

充分利用网络、电视、广播、报刊等媒介,以群众喜闻乐见的宣传方式,对适龄在校女生HPV疫苗接种工作的意义及内容进行广泛宣传。

近年来各地HPV疫苗惠民项目信息

“疾病负担”指标解读

疾病负担(burden of disease, BOD)是指疾病造成的失能(伤残)、生活质量下降和过早死亡对健康和社会造成的总损失,包括疾病的流行病学负担和经济负担两个方面。

 

在疾病的流行病学方面,衡量疾病负担的常用指标包括传统指标和综合指标。

 

传统指标

传统疾病负担的衡量指标包括:用于描述和反映健康状况与水平的常规指标,如死亡人数、伤残人数和患病人数等绝对数指标;以及用来比较不同特征人群疾病分布差异的指标,如发病率、伤残率、患病率、死亡率、门诊和住院率等相对数指标。

 

上述传统疾病负担的衡量指标基本上只考虑了人口的生存数量,而忽略了生存质量,不够全面;但优势在于资料相对计算方便,结果直观,可用于各种疾病的一般性描述。

 

综合指标

疾病负担不等同于死亡人数,综合指标弥补了传统指标的单一性,且可以让各种不同疾病造成的负担之间相互比较。

 

潜在寿命损失年(YPLL):通过疾病造成的寿命损失来估计疾病负担的大小。但忽略了疾病造成的失能对生存质量的影响。

 

伤残调整寿命年(DALYs):将死亡和失能相结合,用一个指标来描述疾病的这两方面的负担。它包括因早死造成健康生命年的损失(YLL)和因伤残造成健康生命年的损失(YLD),即DALY=YLL+YLD。目前,DALY是国内外一致公认的最具代表性、运用最多的疾病负担评价指标。

 

健康期望寿命(HALE):指具有良好健康状态的生命年以及个体在比较舒适的状态下生活的平均预期时间,综合考虑生命的质量和数量两方面。

 

 

随着疾病负担研究的深入,其测量范围从流行病学负担扩大到经济负担。

 

疾病经济负担是由于发病、伤残(失能)和过早死亡给患者本人、家庭以及社会带来的经济损失,和由于预防治疗疾病所消耗的经济资源。

详细见:疾病的“经济负担”怎么计算?

 

参考资料:

陈文. 卫生经济学 [M]. 人民卫生出版社. 2017.

李茜瑶,周莹,黄辉等.疾病负担研究进展[J].中国公共卫生,2018,34(05):777-780.

什么是“年龄标化”?

在流行病学研究中,年龄是多种疾病的危险因素。以发病率为例,该指标反映了一定时期内,特定人群中癌症新发病例的情况。由于年龄是癌症发生的一个重要影响因素,年龄越大,发病率就越高。

 

如果两个国家的人群年龄结构相差很大,例如A市老年人口比例更大,B市年轻人口占比更高,直接比较两地癌症发病率的高低,我们不能确定发病率较高的市,是因为年龄构成不同还是因为其他影响因素(如饮食习惯、环境等)所导致。因此,需要用“年龄标化”的统计学方法,进一步处理数据,排除年龄影响因素的干扰,再来比较两地的发病率数据。

 

以发病率为例,即把原始数据套到一个“标准年龄结构人群里”,计算出”年龄标化发病率“,这样人群结构不同的A市和B市,就能在同一个指标尺度下进行“发病率”比较。年龄标化通常有“中标率”,即我国各地基于某一年份的中国人口年龄结构构成作为标准计算,国内不同地区的疾病数据比较采用的是“中标率”;另一种是“世标率”,即用世界标准人口构成机型标化计算,适用于国与国之间的指标比较。

 

同样地,以死亡率为例,应特别注意各之间地人口构成的差异。用标准化死亡率进行比较才能得出正确结论。如甲、乙两地在未标化前的肺癌死亡率相同,但实际上乙地人群的肺癌死亡率要明显地高于甲地,其原因在于甲地男性老年人口居多,而肺癌的死亡率又与年龄和性别有关,所以用未标化率进行比较时,就会得出甲乙两地肺癌死亡率相同的错误结论。

 

参考资料:

 

张科宏教授:年龄标化的患病率 – 丁香公开课 (dxy.cn)

科学网—癌症(粗)发病率与标化发病率的区别 – 杨雷的博文 (sciencenet.cn)

WHO年龄标化死亡率定义及计算方法

沈洪兵,齐秀英. 流行病学 [M]. 人民卫生出版社. 2015.

疾病的“经济负担”怎么计算?

疾病经济负担是由于发病、伤残(失能)和过早死亡给患者本人、家庭以及社会带来的经济损失,和由于预防治疗疾病的费用。通过计算疾病的经济负担,可以从经济层面上研究或比较不同疾病对人群健康的影响。

总疾病经济负担包括直接疾病经济负担、间接疾病经济负担和无形疾病经济负担。

直接经济负担:指直接用于预防和治疗疾病的总费用,包括直接医疗经济负担和直接非医疗经济负担两部分。直接医疗经济负担是指在医药保健部门购买卫生服务的花费,主要包括门诊费(如挂号费、检查费、处置费、诊断费、急救费等)、住院费(如手术费、治疗费等)和药费等。直接非医疗经济负担包括和疾病有关的营养费、交通费、住宿费、膳食费、陪护费和财产损失等。

间接经济负担:指由于发病、伤残(失能)和过早死亡给患者本人和社会带来的有效劳动力损失而导致的经济损失。具体包括:劳动工作时间损失、个人工作能力和效率降低造成的损失、陪护病人时损失的劳动工作时间、精神损失等。

无形经济负担:指患者及亲友因疾病在心理、精神和生活上遭受的痛苦、悲哀、不便等生活质量下降而产生的无形损失。

 

参考资料:

陈文. 卫生经济学 [M]. 人民卫生出版社. 2017.

李茜瑶,周莹,黄辉等.疾病负担研究进展[J].中国公共卫生,2018,34(05):777-780.